Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. The chances that these situations will crop up. The other is the chance that any single voter in a state will cast the decisive ballot that wins the tipping-point state for the next president. He leads Trump there. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls. This map aggregates the ratings of nine organizations to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. All rights reserved. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party. Read Amy Walter's analysis here. The presidential forecast can change, and between June 3 and November, likely will change. 11 Electors. Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection derived from the Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Election Model. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.October 28: Texas moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. © 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. All rights reserved. All Rights Reserved. Florida, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move to Leans Republican; Georgia and North Carolina to Leans … We call this the snake chart! © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. And it does rain there. Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. We label those states safe on this map as, for the most part, this is consistent with how these states are characterized in other forecasts. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+). See the regular Biden-Trump Polling Map for more granular ratings based on the margin between the two nominees. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations. Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. better than 19 in 20. or >99%. Looking for the national forecast? You can view the full series of three maps here. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Don’t count the underdog out! The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+). October 30: Four changes. The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News & World Report. November 2: Texas moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. This makes it easy to see why some states are hotly contested and others mostly get ignored. Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. November 3: Arizona moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting some to the statewide winner and some to the winner of each district. More bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. Some of the bars represent really weird outcomes, but you never know! We published our final predictions on October 31, 2020. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day. ... Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. The bars below represent the predicted likelihood of every plausible electoral-vote outcome. If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the, Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump, Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate, House will most likely remain under Democratic control, overall electoral environment favors Democrats, if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin, will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win, According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. Florida, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move to Leans Republican; Georgia and North Carolina to Leans Democratic. Our model also simulates what would happen if the race moves, or the polls are biased, in similar amounts in like states. We calculate similarity between states by comparing their demographic and political profiles, such as the share of white voters who live there, how religious they are and how urban or rural the state is. ABOUT US Our model works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (99%+). Sources: US Census Bureau; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; American National Election Studies; 270towin.com; Gallup; FiveThirtyEight; YouGov, Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, Columbia University, Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.”. Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call both 'Likely' and 'Safe'. Updated three times daily, this map will track the electoral vote count based on polling, with no toss-ups (unless exactly tied). (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day. Arizona’s presidential vote. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. We use two metrics to measure states’ importance. The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click me! Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting. October 28: Georgia and North Carolina move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic; Texas from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. less than 1 in 20. or <1%. 2020 United States Presidential Election Predictions and Results. To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the, No Electoral College majority, House decides election. We’ve made it, everyone: these are the 2020 United States presidential election predictions. The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%. The final electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The final electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. November 2: In this final 2020 election update, all toss-ups are called. Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator. States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (90%+). PRIVACY The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. See how the race is shaping up in individual states, or watch, Congrats, you made it to the bottom! Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. The 2016 party winner is used where there are no polls. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Predicted range of electoral college votes, The probability of an electoral-college tie is, Rigorous analysis of the people, polls and policies shaping the presidential and congressional races. As the race for the White House comes to a close, the landscape looks quite similar to how it looked after the party conventions in August as the fall campaign got underway.". Predicted range of electoral college votes. November 2 : Arizona moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Presidential forecast. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2020. It then combines this average with our forecast based on non-polling data, pulling vote shares on each day slightly towards the final election-day projection. Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Updated twice daily, this is an electoral map projection based on The Economist's US presidential election forecast. The candidate that leads in the polls is shown as the winner of the state. The final 2020 electoral college projection from NPR. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast. November 2: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Indiana from Safe to Likely Republican. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. 123 - 289. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin too. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%) Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+). SITE MAP, University of Virginia Center for Politics, Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast, The Economist's US Presidential Election Forecast, The Economist's US presidential election forecast, Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Forecast, Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Election Model, JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast, JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast, Making the Call: Why Media Outlets are Showing Different Electoral Vote Totals, Biden Elected as Pennsylvania Puts Him Across 270 Electoral Votes, Wisconsin Called for Biden; ME-2 for Trump: Remaining Paths to 270 Electoral Votes. The final ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. The final 2020 electoral college outlook from CNN: "Perhaps one of the most unexpected developments in the 2020 presidential campaign is how remarkably stable the state of the race has proved to be through extraordinarily turbulent times. The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report. Arizona is a full-fledged electoral battleground in 2020, even … The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Inside Elections. As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls — the forecast will get less uncertain. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Click here to see the presidential forecast. (270 to win) 249 - 415. Safe is 15% or higher. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. One is the “tipping-point probability”: the chance that a state will cast the decisive 270th electoral vote for the victor. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.November 2: In this final 2020 election update, all toss-ups are called. US 2020 results Charts, maps and analysis of the presidential and congressional races in one place. ), By Nathaniel Rakich, Maya Sweedler and Julia Wolfe, When To Expect The Results In Every State. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top. Want more stuff like this? Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level.